Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right, visits an exhibition of the country’s nuclear achievements, at his office compound in Tehran, Iran, June 11.
By Marisa Herman | Tuesday, 07 November 2023
The House of Representatives last week passed a bipartisan resolution declaring that the U.S. will not back a nuclear Iran and will use “all means necessary” to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining a nuclear weapon – but nuclear deterrence experts fear that Tehran is already a “nuclear power.” While the 2023 U.S. Intelligence Community Annual Threat
found that “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that would be necessary to
produce a testable nuclear device,” experts contend that the regime already has the elements it needs for a nuclear weapon.
Bob Peters, a research fellow for nuclear deterrence and missile defense at The Heritage Foundation’s Center for National
Defense, said there are “three big pieces” necessary for a nuclear weapons program, including missiles, fissile material, and a
warhead design. He contends Iran possesses all three. While a congressional report citing U.S. intelligence assessments
found that Tehran had the “capacity to produce nuclear weapons at some point” but froze the program and “has not mastered all of the necessary technologies for building such weapons,” Peters isn’t confident that is reality.
He points out that Iran has been working on missile technology for the past three decades where it has “slowly and steadily”
increased the ability and accuracy of its long-range missiles. If Tehran’s missile technology was insufficient in any way,
Newsmax insider and retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt said it could see a significant boost thanks to Moscow.
Last month, Russia indicated that it no longer had to obey U.N. Security Council restrictions on giving missile technology to its ally.
“Supplies to and from Iran of products falling under the Missile Technology Control Regime no longer require prior approval by the U.N. Security Council,” Russia’s foreign ministry said in a statement. The restrictions were outlined in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the pact in which numerous countries lifted sanctions against Iran in exchange for the Islamic Republic curbing its nuke program.
In 2018, then-President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Obama-era deal. Iran has continued to expand its nuclear capabilities, though it claims the tech is for peaceful purposes only. Ramesh Sepehrrad, a professor of Middle East affairs and Iran affairs expert, said the West has “turned a blind eye and remained silent about the clerical regime’s military adventurism and terrorist interventions across the Middle East.”
Due to the 2015 nuclear agreement and subsequent concessions, she said the “regime continues to inch closer towards a nuclear bomb.” If Iran didn’t already have nuclear weapons, Holt said it would now that the restrictions on Moscow have been lifted. He points out that Iran has been supportive of Russia’s war on Ukraine and Tehran will likely expect to be rewarded for providing Moscow with one-way attack drones.
“If Iranians don’t have nuclear weapons, they are on the eve of having nuclear weapons,” Holt said. Despite the fact that the Russians were never “crazy” about Iran having nuclear weapons, he said that feeling “seems to have changed” as both nations have their “designs” on the U.S. “Everyone is taking advantage of American weakness,” Holt said. With missiles on hand, Peters said the next component of a nuclear weapons program is fissile material, which is typically
plutonium or uranium that creates a nuclear yield. Last month, Peters said intelligence assessments indicated that
Tehran had enough enriched uranium to produce a nuclear weapon within two weeks.
“What that means is they are basically a virtual nuclear actor,” he said. “They are already there.” The last piece is the warhead design, which Peters described as the “actual explosive package that creates the nuclear yield when combined with the fissile material.”
While reports indicate that Tehran doesn’t have an active nuclear weapons program because there is no evidence it knows
how to build a nuclear warhead, Peters called that assessment “disingenuous.” He points out that nuclear warhead design dates back 80 years and is not new technology. Peters said even “second-generation warhead designs” can be found “floating around on the internet.” With a “general” overview of warheads available online, he finds it hard to believe that Tehran wouldn’t know how to create even a “rudimentary but effective implosion device.” Considering Iran is a country of 80 million people that is five times the size of Texas, Peters said he doesn’t have a lot of confidence that the intelligence community can say with “definitive accuracy” that Tehran doesn’t have a nuclear weapons program or a mock-up of a warhead design.
“Iran is basically a virtual nuclear power,” he said.
