Brief on Iran (BOI – 483)

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Iranian Backed Forces: US Tactical Gains, Strategic Challenges
Newslooks, February 18, 2024 by Ramesh Sepahrrad

In a series of decisive military engagements, the United States has demonstrated its capability and willingness to neutralize threats posed by Iranian-backed forces in the Middle East. From the downing of drones over maritime choke points to the seizure of significant quantities of Iranian oil, these actions signal a robust posture against the malign activities of the Iranian regime. However, despite the tactical successes and the demonstration of military prowess, these measures fall short of a strategic deterrent and do not reflect a firm policy on dealing with the core of the problem: the leadership in Tehran.

On February 2, the U.S.S. Carney and other U.S. Navy assets engaged and destroyed several drones over the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, attributed to Houthi rebels and, by extension, their Iranian sponsors. These operations, while effective in neutralizing immediate threats to commercial and military navigation, are reactive measures to symptoms of a larger malignancy. The United States also made significant financial strikes against Iran, seizing oil and funds linked to the Revolutionary Guards. Yet, these actions, though impactful, are unlikely to shift Tehran’s strategic calculus.

On the surface, the leadership in Tehran, deeply entrenched and ideologically motivated, has weathered decades of international pressure, finding new ways to project power domestically and regionally. The Revolutionary Guards, with its network across the Middle East, continues to support proxy forces, develop ballistic missile capabilities, and engage in cyber warfare, all of which pose direct threats to U.S. forces and allies. This has come at a great cost to the people of Iran, who yearn for freedom, risking their lives and well-being with the growing anti-regime protests across Iran. This is the regime’s Achilles’ heel: hated and weak at home.
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