Iran’s illusion of reform masks the crumbling of Khamenei’s regime
The Hill, July 14, 2024 By Ramesh Sepehrrad
The recent presidential election in Iran, marked by historically low voter turnout and pervasive public rejection, underscores the profound disillusionment and frustration coursing through society.
Masoud Pezeshkian, while touted by some as a reformist, epitomizes the paradox of Tehran’s politics, where the facade of change masks a deeply entrenched crisis of survival. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s increasingly tenuous grip on power is evident as he navigates a regime riddled with internal strife, economic challenges and a society that has rejected his regime in its entirety. This election, far from heralding stabilization, portends a tumultuous period ahead for Khamenei’s leadership.
Pezeshkian’s ascent to the presidency, secured through a narrow margin over hard-liner Saeed Jalili, is an outcome of strategic maneuvers within a tightly controlled political system and a growing crisis for the regime. His acknowledgment that “Khamenei sets all plans and policies, and straying from them is my redline” demonstrates that there will not be any change under his administration.
This admission highlights a broader systemic issue in Iran: The ultimate authority lies with the supreme leader, rendering the president’s role largely ceremonial in terms of any policy shifts.
Pezeshkian’s emergence is the result of Khamenei’s strategic missteps, which are becoming increasingly apparent. The death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash disrupted the supreme leader’s plans to consolidate his power further. Raisi’s death not only deprived Khamenei of a loyal enforcer but also exposed the vulnerabilities within the regime’s leadership structure.
The election of Pezeshkian further complicates Khamenei’s position, as it signals a crack in the hardliner facade he has meticulously maintained. One can argue Pezeshkian’s presidency is a direct result of infighting among the hardliners, which exposes Khamenei’s fading influence, even among his inner circles.
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